Grand National 2008 Preview

Hedgehunter

Been there, done that, will try again! What else is there to be said about this fabulous bay gelding. He owes the racing public and his connections nothing. An Aintree specialist of the top order. His four runs in the race read: - Fell at last (Looked like the winner). Winner, second and ninth. Aintree specialist’s often run well without winning this race in their career so it is great that he has done this already. Whatever he does this season he will be pounds better at Aintree, and while I would not want to put anybody off him, on the downside he is now 12years old and must now be past his best. 12 year olds do win The Grand National but his chance of being one of those rare dual winners must be behind him now. If back to his best though a place would not be out of the question.

Hi Cloy

An Irish raider who like so many do, he does most of his racing in Ireland. Although a winner over three miles in a novice in Ireland he seems to be more of a two and a half mile horse. There has always been a thought that two and a half mile horses get a second wind and then stay of for these marathon trips. I don’t believe this is so. The horse also has plenty of weight to carry in this race. He has some good grade 1 wins under his belt but there are others that look more inviting in this event.

Knowhere

Did not get very far is this race last year when he unseated at the canal turn on the first circuit. If you can look beyond that run he has come back this season. He has been running very well, cumulating with a fine win in the Letheby And Christopher Chase in January with Our Vic Neptune Collonges, Billyvoddan and Simon all beat that day. He was 12th in last seasons Sun Alliance at the festival and his run at his favorite course at the festival may determine how he does here. The Twiston-Davies stable are having a really good season this year and this horse could run well. I think he has too much weight in the race this year to have a good chance but if he takes to the fences better this year who knows? Ran poorly making jumping errors in the gold cup. Will have to improve jumping over these monster fences.

Mr. Pointment

Mr. Pointment was a decent hurdler but always looked like a chaser in the making. With a career of five wins from 11 starts he has a great run/win ratio starting his career with Charlie Edgerton he progressed well into good novice chaser. He won his first novice chase and was second on his two subsequent chase starts to the smart Don’t Push It in the Boylecasino.com Novices' Chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting (2006) and then second to the top class Denman in the toteplacepot Novices' Chase at Newbury in the following February. At the start of this season, his first race was in Handicap Company and also for a new stable. He carried top weight in the Showcase Handicap Chase at Cheltenham and he put up a reasonable performance when a strongly fancied favorite, perhaps this was on the back of him winning first time out the previous two seasons, he finished 4th, however he really showed what he could do on the next run, which was in the Becher Chase at Aintree where he battled on to win the strongly run race. Having shown a liking for the course and a great run the Becher shot him to the head of the betting market for the national itself. Looks to be the right type of horse and now with the Paul Nicholls stables he must be respected here. He has not been tried on ground faster than good and would seem to like some cut in the ground. He should run well but has plenty of weight to carry.

Turko

A winner of the 2007 Sun Alliance chase shows that this horse has a bit of class. However this severe test must be coming too early in his career. Six year old have a very poor record in the race and although this is a good horse there is nothing to suggest that he is a top class horse of the type that would be needed to win this race at six. His most recent outing was in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham where he was third to Our Vic and that was a good run.

Madison Du Berlais

A good horse who has recently been tried at around three miles but who is better at two and a half. He has not won a race at any distance above that and it is difficult to fancy the horse at this marathon distance carrying this weight.

Simon

This bay gelding is turning into a fine chaser. He was going as well as anything in last years race when he came down at the 25th fence. He really took the eye in running and despite the fall looked to be enjoying himself. A past winner of the Sky Bet Chase (Formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) and also the Racing Post Chase at around three miles. He has also run well many times in defeat with his best runs when second to Tarna River over 3m 5f in the Williamhill.co.uk Marathon Chase at Sandown and his second to David Pipe’s smart Over the Creek in the Boylesports.com Cashback Chase Handicap at Cheltenham. Simon is one of those horses who runs to form every time and therefore has to suffer what the handicapper has to deal out consequently he has more weight to carry this year and is the wrong side of the 11st mark but he is at the top of his form and simply can’t be left out of any serious reckoning.

Iron Man

A nice chasing type this who should have improvement in him and could turn out to be good but he has run twice at this course and was unseated in last years Topham at this meeting and fell in this seasons Becher. He must be well thought of as he was in the Gold Cup but he could not live with the class of horses in that race. Could be good but I don’t think this will be his year. Also the horse has not won over a distance of 2m 7f so he could be a touch sort of this distance yet.

Fundamentalist

Has won a hurdle race over 3m1f but looks to prefer much shorter distanced over fences. At 10 he should be at his best but that looks a bit short of winning the Grand National and others have more appeal.

Butler’s Cabin

This 8 year old Bay gelding did nothing special in his hurdling career and seemed to be too eager to settle and show his form but when he turned to chasing it was a different story. On his first chase he finished a close 3rd in a 2m4f race. He then won three small races on the trot, all around two and a half miles before being upped in class and not at all disgraced finishing fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase over the same distance. He then seemed to loose his way somewhat before being tried over a marathon distance of 4 miles plus at the festival in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup where he won and won well. His next outing was in the Irish National, where he shone and gave another great performance to win the race. The horse is getting better as he gets older and also looks to love long distances. The one worry that he does have is that the brave, bold nature of his style of running has seen him finishing his races very tired and sometimes even distressed. In his Cheltenham win last season he collapsed due to lack of oxygen after the race. His trainer Jonjo O’Neill states that this distress is “very brief after the race”, and it does not seem to hamper him in a race. He is well supported in the betting and from this stale that can’t be dismissed lightly. On the downside he has plenty of weight for an eight year old.

Slim Pickings

Ran a cracker in last years race jumping and running with gusto. He made a mistake at the crucial last fence but still battled on for third. One of last year’s dark horses and if you fancied him then I can see no reason for not doing the same again. he has gone up a little in the weights (6lbs) but that should not be too much of a worry. A previous winner of the Imperial Call Chase he runs in good races and perhaps that is why he has difficulty beating the handicapper very often. Like so many Irish horses he will be campaigned in the main over hurdles this season so he is only going to prove his well being before going to The Cheltenham Festival and then having a crack at this race again. A good performance at the festival may see his odds fall but he is sure to be supported by the Irish contingency at both meetings.

Chelsea Harbour

A good horse from an Irish stable and therefore does most of his running in his native land. 10th in last years Irish National where he ran well for a long time before running out of steam at the tail end of the race. This horse is now running into a bit of form. He won the ASpace Cabins Grand National Trial at Punchestown in February in heavy ground over three and a half miles where he made the running. He was then tried in a two and a half mile chase where he had Slim Pickings in behind and was giving weight to all the horses in front of him. A strong market move for this horse should not be overlooked.

Vodka Bleu

Another horse that seems better at the shorter trips although to his credit he seems now to be getting further. He could be another of the dark horses in the race but I would say that his best chance would come if the ground were to be better than good on the day. By that I mean at least G/F and the firmer the better. Unfortunately courses will water if they feel that the going will not be good of softer so this could work against him but it is certainly something to look out for as there are not many in the race that would handle firm going better than him.

L’Ami

A good chaser trained by the best France has to offer in terms of national hunt trainers. Ran a creditable 10th in last years race with the help of A.P.McCoy on board. If Tony picks this horse again then that would be significant. It is difficult to access the horse this year as to be fair his form this year had not been up to what we have seen in the past. He is not a prolific winner by any means as he has only won twice in 40 runs and this is also a worry. He should be at the top of his form at this age. The best guide to his chance would be Tony McCoy riding and a significant move in the betting.

Snowy Morning

A progressive chaser snowy morning looks as if he is being laid out for the race this year. He was a good chaser at a distance of around two and a half miles and is now looking at longer distances. He ran well in last seasons Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham festival where he only found the very smart Denman too good. A poor run after this can be forgotten. He took an uncharacteristic fall in the Hennessey, and has been having confidence boosting hurdle runs. He has a good strike rate of around 60% and he is from the strong Irish stable of Willie Mullins. A good market move should not be overlooked.

Bewleys Berry

This is a horse who early in his career looked as if he was really going places, but he has not quire lived up to the expectations. Not a prolific winner indeed he has not won since November 2005 and has only ever won one chase. That said he has run well in his races on the three previous occasions that he has run over the national fences. Unfortunately in this race last year he fell at Bechers on the second circuit when going really well and the fall was characteristically a “crumple on landing” type of fall we have seen so many times at the fence. The other two occasions he found just one too good in The Becher Chase. He is becoming something of an Aintree horse and this is in his favor, as long as the handicapper does not penalize him too much for these good runs. (Up in weights by 4lbs at time of writing) He is sure to put up a good run but will he find one too good again?

Contraband

A once reasonable flat horse who ran up a good sequence of runs when as a novice with Martin Pipe. He has not reproduced that form anywhere since. Ran twice at Cheltenham and in both races ran poorly and probably above his class. It would be a really good run if he were to just get round. He should have little chance of making the frame.

Mckelvey

This bay gelding was the pick of the bunch at the end of last years race, he was slowly away from the tape and made good progress throughout and may have won had there been another 50 yards. It is all the more remarkable as is would seem that he also broke down in the race. He is a fine chaser with all the right credentials for winning the national. He had shown his liking for long distances when he won the 2006 summer national over a trip of 4miles+ He acts on any going and add this to his liking for the course he would be a good anti-post bet were it not for the fact that he did break down and has not been out yet this season at the time of writing. Gone up 7lbs (too much In my estimation) but is still there on a racing weight. Two pipe openers in hurdle races in Feb and March. Could not really assess anything as he finished tired in races with two much pace but he looks as if he is back to good fitness now.

Joaaci

Won two small chases in 2005 and has not won a chase since. Ran in the Scottish national last year but showed nothing and was pulled up. To be fair to the horse the ground would not have suited him, as he likes cut in the ground. This race looks beyond him this year but he is still only 8 years old.

Point Barrow

Well-backed co-favorite who fell at the first fence last year. This came towards the rear end of a long season. He is a very good chaser and is a winner of the Irish national. There is much to like about this horse but he does seem to run a lot of times in a season. The distance will be no problem to him and his one run in the national does not mean that he has a disliking here as many horses fall at the first because of the speed the runners are going at the first. More of a worry is in his first four runs early this season he has just not shown any of the old sparkle. I think you would need to see at least one good run in the build up to give any confidence this year. Did not run well in his races this year with form figures of 12,11,8,13,4 10 and 3. This does not look to be his year.

Cornish Rebel

Nice horse previously trained by Paul Nicholls. Pulled up in this race in 2006 and also when tried in the Scottish National Last year. Despite what seems like a lack of stamina he has won a chase over 3m 3f . He once seemed full of potential but is not the force he was. A good run would not be a complete surprise but this looks like a big ask for this horse these days.

D’Argent

A good chaser who seems to run in and out of form. When he is good he is a fine horse to watch but he is a bit quirky at his fences. He has had a run in the Hennessey this season but did not run very well. He did wear blinkers for the first time in that race and it looked as if they did not work for him but in his subsequent race they were left on and did the trick. You can’t say that he wasn’t good enough to win this race but you can’t view him with any confidence, as it might be one of his off days.

No Full

A winner of two from 25 races both in soft ground at around two and a half miles. He has not won for over two years and he is only 7 years old. The handicapper seems to have taken no chances with him. Difficult to give him any chance in this race.

Baily Breeze

Another Irish raider who has not run on the mainland before. Looks to like any ground but also seems to prefer shorter trips despite once winning over three miles. Not much in his form to suggest he is up to this grade of race.

Bob Hall

Cloudy Lane

This horse will be a popular choice for many coming from the McCain stable even given the trainer is now Donald and not his father Ginger whom of course trained Red Rum and more recently Amberleigh house to win this race. The stable obviously knows what is required in a horse to win the race and this horse suddenly came to notice when winning Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup chase at the festival. He was then sent for a run in the Irish national where he was unlucky to be brought down. He has continued to improve and at the end of last year he won the Tommy Whittle chase at Haydock. This is always encouraging, as horses that do well at Haydock seem to run well over the national course. 8 years old and still plenty of improvement to come he could be a real live contender by the start of the race and certainly one to note especially as he has been given a really good racing weight.

King Johns Castle

Another Irish raider who has never run in this country. He is a reasonable horse but has not won over a longer distance than 2m 3f. He has run over three miles and put up an acceptable run but was tiring at the end. In his favor he has a good racing weight. Unless there is a significant market move for this horse there is little that suggests he is good enough to win this race.

Mon Mome

A lovely chaser this 8 year old bay gelding comes here on the back of some fine performances He was second in the 2006 Welsh National where he put in a cracking performance. Also he ran well in last season’s festival where he was 4th to Joe’s Edge in the William Hill Trophy chase. He is a progressive long distance chaser who could be the right sort for this race. He did run once in the Scottish National but unseated his rider; despite this he is generally a good jumper and has a proven record over distance. He is not a horse that you could disregard easily.

Cornish Sett

A nice enough chaser this 9 year old bay gelding. Last run was in the Welsh National where he was last of the 8 finishers. He did not get into the race really so it is a little difficult to access him fully. A previous winner over 3m1f. So if he takes to Aintree he could run well but he would have to improve considerably to take part in the finish here.

Naunton Brook

Ran in this race last year and was tailed off and pulled up despite running well at the start. He is a good little chaser, he was 9th in the midlands national on his last run where again he was going well until he got behind and then he seemed to loose interest. I quite like this horse and feel that if he was having a good day he would run well but he is just as likely to be on an off day and not run well. He seems to run well for David England and with him on his back I could see a big run from this horse at a big price.

Tumbling Dice

Hasnt yet won over further than 2½ miles but connections think he will be suited to this race. Huge stamina doubts so you cant fancy him until hes proven he can stay.

Backbeat

Injury kept him off the course for a while like last years winner Silver Birch. Great jumper and shown plenty of ability including at Sandown in January 08 when winning a valuable handicap chase. Could be the sort of horse that would really take to these fences and good to soft ground should be ideal for him. His pedigree suggests plenty of stamina and he wasn't stopping at 3m 1f at Sandown so he is an outsider to consider seriously.

Comply or Die

Another coming from the powerful stable of David Pipe this 9-year-old bay gelding has some good long distance form behind him. Although he fell in the 2005 Scottish National and was pulled up in the 2005 Welsh National he did win the Eider chase over 4m 1f at the start of this year. That race came on the back of a good two and a half length second to Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock giving the winner 2lbs. He gets 2lbs from that horse here so this should put in him with a good chance. Looks the right sort of horse for this race and the Pipe Stable are having a good year. Comply Or Die is owned by one of the best national hunt owners we have Mr. David Johnson who has not been lucky in this race so it would be good to see him having some luck this year and this could be the one to do it. Running of a good racing weight and he acts on any ground. Could well have a part to play in the finish.

Idle Talk

Kelami

It seems strange that this horse is only 10 as he seems to have been around for longer. A former winner of the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase at the festival in 2005 he was full of promise. However that was the last chase win he had and he has only won one hurdle race since that day. He was pulled up in last years race when behind and tailed off. There should not be much improvement from the horse but he did put in a performance like his old self in February this year in the Racing Post chase at Kempton. He has had two previous runs in this race with a BD and a PU last year. A good horse and running off a good weight but I feel that perhaps his best chances have now gone. That said he did have the champion jockey riding last year and if he picks this horse again that should not be overlooked.

Milan Deux Mille

This is a young horse who looks to be a two and a half mile chaser. He has only run once at a distance of 3 miles and ran out of steam. In his favor he ran well over these fences in the Topham last April but this is a very tall order for this horse to win this. 6 years olds do not have the maturity, stamina or experience to with The Grand National. And it would be a big surprise if this horse won.

Nadover

An ex French horse running out of Charlie Mann’s stable and who has progressed since being with him. A duel winner of the Coral Cup at Chepstow's Grand national meeting over two and a half miles, which seems to be his trip. 7 year olds have a poor record in this race with the last 7-year-old winner being in 1940. It would take an exceptional horse to win at this age and this horse has not shown that he is the one.

Philson Run

Ran a cracker last year in this race. A lightly races horse this is a classic long distance chaser. He is 12 years old not so I can’t see any improvement on last year but he is a real mudlark and if the ground turned up heavy he may not have to improve and the mud may just slow down the others enough. He has already shown his well being this season with a fine 2nd first time out in the Totesport.com Classic Chase over 3m 5f. coming to the end of his career with only 15 runs under his belt, he is difficult to fully assess but certainly looks the right type. He has been given a really good racing weight. Do not overlook this horse if the ground is soft or heavy!

Dun Doire

A good Irish chaser who does most of his running over there. A past winner at the Cheltenham Festival when he won the 2006 William Hill Trophy in good style, and followed it up with a 7th in the Irish national. Well fancied last year but ran a poor race and was tailed off for a long time before being pulled up 5 from home. If you add this to his run in the 2006 Becher Chase where he fell after being hampered at the chair then maybe he has taken a disliking for the course. One point in his favor he has a reduced weight this year and that may help.

Ardaghey

Just scrapes in as a reserve after Opera Mundi was pulled out. Officially one of the worst horses in the race but its a narrow range of abilities this year and he has the lowest weight! Trainer has won the national before. To be ridden by David England.