Grand National 2007 Preview

Hedgehunter

Hedgehunter is one of those horses that just seem to love Aintree. He ran another cracking race last year off top weight, to add a well deserved 2nd to his win in 2005. This 11 year old bay gelding is one that you can not leave out of any reckoning when you come to assess the merits of any runner in the race. A former winner of the grade three Bobbyjo chase in Ireland, he is a top class long distance chaser. His win run ratio is not that good but most of his races are run as prep races with this race in mind so that is not too much of a worry. He is carrying 11st 12 lbs and as I have written in past years this is not the type of weight that wins Nationals. That said he does hold the biggest weight carrying victory in the past 25 years when he carried 11st 1lb to victory. In the last 20 runnings we have seen 1 X 11st 1lb , 1 X 11st 0lbs , 1 X 10st 13lbs, 1 X 10st 12lbs, 2 X 10st 11lbs, 1 X 10st 10lbs, 2 X 10st 8lbs, 3 X 10st 7lbs, 3 X 10st 6lbs, 1 X 10st 5lbs, 1 X 10st 4lbs, 1 X 10st 3lbs, 2 X 10st 0lbs So as you can see the lesser weights do have a distinct advantage on winning the race although there have been quite a few higher weighted horses finishing in the frame. If he had less weight to carry he would be a very live contender, but he should have too much weight here. Of course being the best horse running in this handicap it is only fair that he carries top weight but it would be an exceptional running that would see him win. Red Rum was the last winner to carry this amount of weight when he won off 12st in 1974. It would be really great to see this well loved horse winning and despite everything I have said he could have the class to do a rummie in this race.

Fota Island

A nice enough chaser this but something of a 2 mile specialist. There is nothing in his form that suggests that he should get this trip and he has to carry 11st 9lbs and the only horse in recent memory to carry that sort of weight to a win was Red Rum. This all counts against him and it would be remarkable if he got a place. .

Eurotrek

Well fancied and another laid out for the race. He has been kept fresh and sweet for today and his only run this season was over these fences in the Becher Chase where he put up a fine performance winning that day. He has had plenty of problems which have kept him from the racecourse.

This is only his 12th run which is not much for an 11yr old. He has plenty to do today at the weights and I think realistically he could have an each way chance but he will have to put up a career best to win from this weight. .

L´Ami

Another fancied horse who has put up some really good performances in the past including a 4th in the 2006 Gold cup and 2nd in the Racing Post Chase in the same season. He is one of the types of horse who is genuine and always runs well. This puts him at the mercy of the handicapper and this means that he is carrying 11st 8lbs this year and that looks like more than enough weight. He has shown his good form again this season running well to finish 2nd in the Aon Chase and 7th in the Gold Cup. A good young horse who comes from one of the best stables in France. He should be shown respect. .

Monkerhostin

A good hurdler who made the grade as a chaser. Monkerhostin had really good seasons in 04/05 and 05/06 where his results looked impressive, none more that his beating of Kauto Star in the William Hill Haldon Gold Cup Chase. This was overlooked as the favorite for the day was one, Best Mate who was pulled up and sadly died in that race. Although he has not won since he has put in some really good performances. 2nd in the King George at Kempton in 2005 and second in the Paddy Power earlier the same year. He runs in the top class races and therefore is always contesting against the best in the land. He has only run three times this season his first run was 3rd in the Peterborough Chase.

Next 4th in the King George and then 4th in the Gold Cup. He is a top class horse who unfortunately has to carry a big weight because of this. Red Rum was the last horse to carry as much as this to win a national but it could be argued that this horse is a better horse than Rummie although of course Rummie always saved his best for Aintree. If he likes the course and the ground is good he could have a live chance but the weight is too high for him to be recommended on his first try at the fences. .

Armaturk

A nice consistent 2 mile chaser who has done nothing to suggest that he can stay this trip. His furthest run so far is 2m 4f and that looked too far for him. He has little chance at this weight on all known form. .

Thisthatandtother

A nice chaser at around 2.5 miles. There is a theory that 2.5 mile horses manage to get the four and a half miles of the national well, but I am not so sure about this theory. Also the horse has plenty of weight. For me he would be a surprise winner. .

Billyvoddan

This horse comes here in good shape on the back of some good runs this season the best of which where his last two runs. The first a really good win at Ascot in the BGC Silver Cup Handicap Chase where he slaughtered the field and then a good 2nd in the Ryanair Chase over 2m 5f. Both of these races saw him running in blinkers. They seem to have made him concentrate even more on his races and he is well thought of by the stable. He has plenty of weight to carry today however. He is also prone to hitting a fence or two in his races. It remains to be seen if given all this he is good enough to win this race but he hopefully will give a good account of himself and could easily run into a place at a good price. Note Blinkered horses do not have a good record in this race .

Numbersixvalverde

Last year's winner and the 2005 winner of the Irish equivalent. He comes back here to try his luck again. He is higher in the weights this year and it would seem that he has more to do. He has been laid out for this race this year with the first two of his three runs in hurdle races. He then ran over 3m 1f on heavy ground in the Bobbyjo Chase where he finished fourth with Point Barrow giving him 3 lbs in third. He has done nothing wrong in his build up but at 11 he should not have the improvement needed to win back to back Nationals.

Idle Talk

A young horse with plenty of talent. He has not many miles on the clock but has run in top class races with merit. 2nd in last seasons Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham festival was followed by a fourth place in the Scottish National giving weight to the first three and having to shake off a mistake on the first circuit. Started this season at Cheltenham in November when 2nd in the Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Chase to the impressive My Will, Followed that up with a good run (6th) in the Hennessy, but then was disappointing UR twice the last in the Gold Cup however on that occasion he was hampered and subsequently did not have a hard race continuing for a long while riderless. A little higher in the weights than ideal but from a stable won has had winners and bought by Trevor Hemings who has won the race with Hedgehunter with this race in mind. .

Royal Auclair

Second in 2005 but unfortunately fell at the first last year. This is a fine long distance chaser who is another who because of good runs sees himself at the mercy of the handicapper. He likes the track and will act on most goings and he is also coming into a little form as his 3rd place in the Aon chase in February shows. When second in the race he was carrying 11st 10 lbs in the race so he will be carrying substantially less this time. I could easily see him running into a place again this year. .

Cloudy Bays

Has won once on firm but his best form is on heavy ground. Not the most sound of jumper and can make mistakes. Has won the Wilf Dooly Chase over 2m 6f on two occasions and also the Pierse Leopardstown Handicap Chase over 3 miles. He is high enough in the weights to ensure that he will have to improve on those wins to get in with a shout here. He would be a surprising winner unless there is a very soft surface. .

Knowhere

A nice young chaser with only 11 runs under his belt. His latest form has been let down by jumping errors and when tried over 3 miles he has not looked as good as when running around 2m 4f. He is another of the young horses who would have to improve considerably to win this race but is something of an unknown at these distances. His trainer has won the national twice and knows what is needed so you would have to take it on trust that he thinks he can get the trip. He also has plenty of weight to carry in this marathon. .

Kelami

A fine horse from the best national hunt training stable in France. A past winner of The William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival this horse runs with great merit. Only 9 and not a prolific winner (4 from 40) he rarely runs a poor race and that means that the handicapper has his measure. A recent 2nd in the Agfa Diamond Handicap Chase and also most recently a grade 3 chase in France he looks to come here in good form. Kelami ran in this race once before in 2004 where he was unlucky to be brought down at the first fence. Not sure why we have had to wait to see him take part again but he could be one of the overlooked horses in the race. By the way he has the champion jockey A.P.McCoy riding this should be seen as a massive boost to the horse's chances. Any significant market more should also not be overlooked. .

Point Barrow

Last seasons Irish National winner and sure to be a firm favorite with the Irish this year. Looking at the stats he has a lot going for him here. He has a good racing weight, he is the right sort of age and he loves long distance chases. He has never been to Aintree before but that can be a good thing as winners of this race are often on their first visit to the course. He has raced only once outside his native country and that was at Cheltenham in November 2005 when he was 5th in the amateur chase over 4m 1f . He won the Pierse Leopardstown Handicap Chase in January this year off top weight and looks bang in form. The only negative about this horse is that he has run 7 times already this season. This horse seems to have everything going for him and if he handles the course he should be there or thereabouts. A really good chance.

Celtic Son

A good hurdler who has not quite made up into a chaser yet despite winning his first chase in good style and coming second in his second in the Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase. Since then he has not run up to what was expected of him with his best run came in the cross country Country Gentlemen's Association Chase at Cheltenham. Looks too high in the handicap on his bear form but he is from the Pipe Stable and is owner by David Johnson one of the best if not the best National hunt supporting owners anywhere in the country. They know what it takes to win good races but this horse at the moment is more of a could be than a have done horse. Not without a chance by any means but has not shown good enough form on the racecourse. .

Simon

A young horse who is on his way up the handicap and that may be well in his favor this year. His weight is still on the high side with only six winners in the last 20 years managing to carry this weight or more to victory (see Hedgehunter). He ran well in the Welsh National back in December where although he was outpaced early on he did stay on really well in that 3m 5f contest. Since that race he has won the Sky Bet Chase over 3m+ and also the Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (Class 1) over three miles. He should stay this trip if he takes to the fences. He is a small framed horse but that is not always the disadvantage that you would think over these goliath fences. He is fancied and should put up a good show. .

Ballycassidy

Ballycassidy ran an absolute cracker last year before coming to grief at the 25th fence. He was out in font and running as if he was really enjoying himself. He has been given the same weight to carry this year. He has contested some good races in the past. He was 7th in the King George in 2005 and 14th in the Gold Cup the same season. He contests the best races and therefore stays quite high in the handicap but after the run last year he could just an Aintree type of horse. I can't really see him winning unless the ground is good or faster but he has some each way claims. .

Clan Royal

Clan royal is an Aintree regular now as this is his 4th race. Not sure if there has been an unluckier horse in very recent times. He ran the race of his life in 2004 only to come up against Amberleigh house who finished like a train that day to deny him victory. In 2005 he was going extremely well and way out in front on the second circuit and looked to be in with a great shout only to be carried out by a loose horse. Last year he ran really well to finish in third place. He is a good horse who at 12 yrs old his chance should now have come and gone. His form this season has not been so good with a pipe opener in a small hurdle race that was followed by a first fence fall in the Becher Chase over these fences in November. Only one other run he was pulled up at Ascot. With that in mind his connections are trying something different with the horse this year sending him to Ireland to go hunting to freshen him up. Also a change of jockey this year and the smart amateur rider J.P.McNamara will be in the saddle. Weather all of this works or not will be seen soon but you can rely on the horse to put up a good show and from what is still a racing weight he could easily run into a place. And who knows? 12 year olds do not have a great record in the race with 3 12 year old winners in the last 20 years. But he does love this race. .

Gallant Approach

8 yr old with only 8 races under his belt looks to have it all to do in this competitive event. However this is an ex pointer and therefore will know his racing. A winner of the ladbrokes.com Handicap Chase at Newbury, and the Raffin Stud Greatwood Caring For Retired Racehorses Novices' Chase , the later being over three miles. An official rating of 141 shows that he is no mug but he will have to improve on what we have seen on the racecourse so far. We have not much to go on with this horse but a strong Market move could be significant from the stable that sent out Mely Moss a few years back after a long lay of who just got touched off into second place. .

Livingstonebramble

This old horse has had plenty of racing in his time and has 4 wins from 29 starts. The main problem is the distance all of his wins have been at 2m 4f or less. You have to go back to 1970 when the last 2m 4f specialist won the race. Stamina is all important these days and therefore it is difficult to give this horse a chance. His is however from a well respected stable. .

Dun Dorie

Fancied for last years race this bay gelding did not eventually take his chance. More fancied for this years renewal and he is at the head of the betting. A really good horse on a soft surface and should the ground turn up too firm connections will have another think. His best run to date was his win in last seasons Ellen Construction Thyestes Handicap Chase over three miles which probably set him as a National type. He ran with credit in last years Irish National finishing only 7th and this after winning six races on the bounce. This was mainly due to the fact that the going conditions in the race was too firm for him and he was unable to cut back the leaders in the back end of the race. He ran on this course earlier this season when he contested the Becher Chase where he was hampered and fell at the Chair fence. He had two hurdle runs before winning a nice race at Down Royal in March which has put him spot on for the race. A good horse who is well fancied by connection he will have to improve to win this but at 8 we have not seen the best of him.

Kandjar D´Allier

A nice chaser from a stable in great form this season. A winner of the Tommy Whittle in heavy ground this season which was his best run for sometime. However he was disappointing in his follow up race in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase. He has a good racing weight if he is good enough. He would need to improve to win this I feel but he is only 9 and could have quite a bit of improvement to come. .

Slim Pickings

A young chaser from a really good Irish yard. Winner of the listed Imperial Call Chase over 3 miles would put him in with something of a chance here. He has one of the best jockeys riding him in the form of Barry Geraghty and any move in the betting market should not be ignored. .

Zabenz

Imported horse who has run in Australia and USA and who has run some good races since coming here in 2004. 3rd in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at last seasons Festival. He was second over 3m+ in his last outing in the BGC Silver Cup Handicap Chase. He ran in last years Scottish National and finished 9th. He was tiring at the end of the race so his stamina may be in question over these marathon trips. He likes good ground and with that forecast for the race this could be a help to him. .

Bewleys Berry

This bay gelding's second in the 2006 Becher Chase was impressive from the point of view that he traveled and jumped these fences very well. He is another horse who has a good racing weight and at 9 yrs old should have more improvement to come especially as he has had little racing. He was sixth in last seasons Royal and Sun Alliance chase at the festival and therefore has some good form behind him. He seems to act on all surfaces so this will not be a worry although he did tire in his last race over 3m 5f at Haydock but that was in heavy ground where a lot of horses finished tired. Even given his lack of experience the handicapper could have his mark so he would have to improve on what he has done so far to win this race but that is quite possible.

Longshanks

2nd and 4th in the Topham in 2004 2005 over these fences means that the horse should handle the fences with no problem. He has been entered in the last two nationals but his handicap rating was not high enough for him to make the cut. This year is different he will make the line up and take his chance. He is a horse that has had injury problems and therefore is another who is lightly raced. His only run this year was a very impressive win in the cantorspreadfair.com Handicap Chase at Newbury where he handled the heavy ground better than most. As an 8 yr old he took part in the Scottish National and finished 6th, that day he did not settle early on and therefore never managed to get to the leaders but he did show that he had some potential. Could well be one of the dark horses from a trainer who has won the race before (Mr. Frisk 2000). .

Bothar Na

Another young horse with good form over these fences. He was a good 4th in the 2004 Foxhunters. He won the Kerry National back in September. He was then 5th in the Munster National where he would have been closer but for a mistake in the important part of the race. Two disappointing runs after that concluding with a pulled up in the Hennessy in November. He has not been seen since but if he is well he could be anything at 8 years old and must have improvement to come. A market move for this horse should not be ignored. He has a good racing weight and likes good ground. .

Graphic Approach

A nice young chaser from a canny stable who think a lot of him. Good runs in The Mildmay of Flete (3rd) and the Paddy Power (5th) give him a sniff of a chance here. He is another who will have to improve on his form so far to win but he is still young and could be an improver. .

Homer Wells

First class chaser who needs soft ground to show his best. A recent winner of both the Ellen Construction Thyestes Handicap Chase and also the Bobbyjo Chase where he had Jack High, Point Barrow and Numbersixvalverde in behind. Looks to have a good chance if he takes part but his connections are not sure if he will and they will look at the going before hand. If he does start then the market will be the best guide to his chances. .

Liberthine

This Bay Mare was entered in the race last year but she was withdrawn after it was realized that her jockey (the son of the owner) did not qualify for the race. This year however he is okay to enter and so the mare is taking her chance. First of all mares do not have a great record for winning the race with only 12 in the whole history of the race and the last was Nickel Coin in 1951. That said only 1 mare has run since 2000 unfortunately she got no further that the 1st fence. However Auntie Dot, Dubacilla and Ebony Jane all finished in the frame in the 90's. So what about this mare's chance? She is a young horse with good wins under her belt such as The Mildmay of Flete at the 2005 festival and a win in the Topham this time last year over these fences. She finished 4th at the end of last season at Sandown over 3m 6f where she looked as if she did not get the trip running really well for a long time before losing her place over the last mile. This really is the only chink in her amour, will she stay? If she does she could have a great chance but her furthest winning distance to date is 2m 6f. .

Silver Birch

After a fantastic win n the Welsh National in 2004 this horse had the bad luck of being injured and having to take a year off. Since his return he had not shown he was back in any way to the form that saw him win that race. He ended last year with a fall in this race. This season he has changed stables and the change seems to have done him good. He ran well in the sporting Index cross country chase at Cheltenham in December finishing 6th and fading at the end of the race after running well in the race. He then went to Punchestown to try another cross country and finished 2nd in a good contest. He then was freshened up in a hurdle before going to the Cheltenham Festival and finished 2nd in the cross country race. To try and weigh up his chances may not be straightforward as he loves soft ground indeed he has not won on going better than soft but this is mainly because although he jumps well his does not have a very fast pace and the soft ground does not let his rivals out of his sight at the end of the race. In the soft he would have a great chance but on good? Well I think he still has a shout for a place in this race especially off a good racing weight, but this year the ground may be fast and that would count against him. .

Philson Run

Good old fashioned long distance chasing type this horse. He has only run 13 times due to injury problems and therefore hard to assess even for an 11 yr old. He didn't run well when he contested the Welsh National in 2005 and finished pulled up, but he had a better race in last seasons Scottish National where he finished 6th on ground too fast for him. Likes easy going and may not get it in this race either. .

Puntal

Excellent 6th place if a long was behind the leaders in this race last year after over a year off. Hasn't won a race since the Betfred Gold Cup Chase in April 2004. He has some talent but is inconsistent. If he runs up to his best and has some luck he could make the frame. .

Tikram

Ran some good races up to the start of 2006 and then seemed to lose his way. He had changed stables after a break at the back end of last year and is now with the in-form Alan King but in his two runs for him he has not shown the form of old. This looks like to long distance for him with his wins coming in 2m 5f or shorter races. .

Mckelvey

A really good long distance chaser who has in the past suffered from back problems. His connections say that he is now over this and a fine win in the summer National over 4m+ means that he has the stamina for this race. He is a versatile horse with wins on all types of ground. He also has good form over these fences as his 6th in the Becher chase showed although that race is too short for this chaser really. A good 3m handicap win recently will have put him spot on for this race. I can easily see him running into a place and he could also win the race. Looks to be one of the real dark horses of the race. .

Naunton Brook

Another of the dark horses, Naunton Brook is a lightly raced 8 yr old who's running style may suit The National. His fine run in the Welsh National early in the season demonstrated his liking for being up wit the leaders and also front running if he can. This suits Aintree, I realize that horses are often caught on the run in but in order to win you have to be up with the pace at least on the second circuit. His win in the De Vere Slaley Hall Northumberland National Handicap Chase was over 4 miles and therefore his stamina is in little doubt and he likes good or softer ground. His trainer has also won the national with Bindaree and also Earth Summit so he should be well prepared for the race. He has a lot going for him in the race including a good racing weight. The only doubt must be his poor run at Cheltenham the last time out. .

Iris Royal

Nice 11 year old chaser from a good stable. Pulled up in this race last year after only one circuit. He has won over three miles but looks happier running over shorter distances. He would be a surprise winner, but on his day who knows? .

Jack High

Jack High comes from a very good Irish trainer Ted Walsh. He has won the race before with Papillion in 2000. Second to last years winner Numbersixvalverde in the Irish National over 3m 5f and a good win in the Betfred over 3m 5f + means that this horse is a fine long distance chaser. He does make jumping errors and last year he unseated his rider at the 15th fence. He could only finish 10th in the Paddy Power earlier in the season but has steadily been improving and his last run in the Bobbyjo Chase was his best so far finishing 2nd with Numbersixvalverde and the strongly fancied Point Barrow in behind him. At 12 years old he will not be improving but with a clear round he may just be good enough to win this off a low weight. .

Sonevafushi

A horse that has been running in hunter chases and does well in lower class chases. Does not look up to this class of race however and would be a big surprise winner. .

Joes Edge

Ran well in last years race to finish 7th The winner of the 2005 Scottish National he need good ground to show his best and it looks like he might get it with Aintree watering the course this week in order to maintain the good going. He had gone a little off the boil and therefore has dropped down the handicap and starts this race looking like he will carry 8lbs less than the 10st 10lbs he carried last year. His latest run was at Cheltenham where he won a three way photo in the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 which was particularly well contested this year. Looks to have a real live chance unless the ground changes significantly.