Grand National 2005 PreviewGrey Abbey11-11-12--*NON-RUNNER* -- A true chaser, Grey Abbey is an 11-year-old grey gelding who is a bold front running type. He can be relied upon to do his best no matter what, however he is at his best when there is give in the ground. Grey Abbey is consistent and is top class he has made the frame in almost 50% of his races. He was the winner of the Scottish version of this great race when last year he beat Kerry Lads by a distance with Maximise a further length behind. He also won the Charlie Hall Chase last year when he had Sir Rembrandt and Royal Emperor behind that day. Grey Abbey is a great favourite and it would be great to see him win this race however he would seem to have it all to do today. He has to defy top weight and that would be bad enough but his liking for soft ground would mean that his best running would be on the softer surface but this would make giving the weight away more difficult. He has won once before on ground gd/fm but his best chance would come on a softer surface.
Sir Rembrandt9-11-10 --*NON-RUNNER* -- This bay gelding has suffered from too many good runs and the handicapper getting hold of him of late, despite this his most recent form figures are 2,2,4,2,4,3. So despite not winning since 6th December 2003 he has run well. His last win was a very fine performance in the Rehearsal Chase at Chepstow where he managed to show the rest of the field a clean pair of heels in very soft ground. He is an ex-pointer with not many miles on the clock and at 9 years old he could be just at his peak. He has the problem of being too high in the weights on any recent runnings in fact you have to go back to Red Rum at his peak to find a winner that has carried this amount of weight into the winners enclosure.
Le Coudray (IRE)11-11-12This bay gelding is the first of the Irish raiders and it is his Irish form that looks very good. He is a winner of a The Grade one Pierse Group Drinmore Novice Chase in 2002 and in the same season won another grade one, the Denny Gold Medal Novice Chase. In the 2003 season he was without a win but he still put in great performances getting fourth to the very impressive Beef or Salmon in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase, another grade one. He ran well for a long way in this race last year but he fell at Bechers on the second circuit but he was only one of nine who fell at this fence. His recent form is a problem as he has only been out twice this season first time finishing 7th in a 2.5-mile handicap chase and then pulling up in the Irish National. He has not won at a distance greater than 2.5f and therefore has a lot to prove at these long distances.
First Gold (FR)12-11-11 A well thought of horse by his connections, this bay gelding was thought of a Gold Cup horse and has run twice in the race. The best he did however in the race was a 5th place last season. He has a lot of class about him and he runs in the best races. He is a three times veteran of the King George at Kempton and has respectable places of 3rd,4th and 5th. His best run to date was probably two seasons ago in the Martell Cognac Cup Chase at Aintree when he won for the second time. He seems to like Aintree but has not yet been tested at the big fences. Although he has not won since April 2003 he does run in the top class races and so has to constantly battle with the best. In his last run he was pulled up but this was an unsuitable race and also the running did not suit his style and he is better judged on his previous 2nd at Haydock. He is another who is high in the weights and you have to go back 27 years for the last horse to carry this weight to victory and at 12yrs old, also the stats are not great for him accepting that previous years winner was 12 years old but before him you have to go back 9 years for the next 12 year old to win. A good horse with much against him.Going and Distance: Has won on ground ranging from good to heavy and up to a distance of 3m3f Past Form: A winner of 11 races from 38 starts including 10 chases and 1 hurdle Recent Form: Started the season with a reasonable 9th in the Hennessey. His next race was the King George where he came 5th. His next race was in the Peter Marsh Chase where he ran really well. His only other run can be discounted when he was pulled up. Points For: Class Points Against: Too high in weights. Seabald (GER)10-11-8--*NON-RUNNER* -- An extremely talented novice who ran up a run of 7 wins the 2000/2001 season. A German import this bay gelding who would be a popular winner, as he is owned by two ex-Liverpool footballers. Seabald has lost some of his consistency of late but his past record puts him in here with as good a chance as any on form but he is also one that is too high in the weights. A Past winner of the November Novices chase at Cheltenham, and more recently the silver trophy chase at Cheltenham. He was second in the Martell novice chase in 2002 and 2nd in the Melling chase a year later so he likes he course, but he has not tried these fences yet however there is nothing to suggest he will not handle the course. Perhaps more of a problem could be the extreme distance as he has not won beyond 2m5f however he goes well on a firm surface so he could be one of the few that likes this if he was lucky enough to get it.
Rince Re (IRE)12-11-7 --*NON-RUNNER* -- A fine consistent horse this bay gelding is another of the Irish raiders. He comes from a good stable, that of Ted Walsh. He is a well thought of horse who has been placed in 26 of his 37 starts and rarely runs a bad race, that said however his most recent two runs were not up to his usual standard. He has only had the two runs this season and this race has been his target so those runs may not be representative of his chance. The vast majority of his runs are in his native Ireland as you would expect but he has put in two great races at Cheltenham winning the Pillar Chase and also coming second in the same race. Rince Re is another who runs against the best in his country and is consistent in his running. He is a good jumper on the whole and the betting may be the best guide to his chance on the day.Going and Distance: Has won on ground ranging from soft to heavy and up to a distance of 3m2f Past Form: A winner of 12 races from 37 starts including 9 chases and 3 hurdle Recent Form: Two runs this season have been below par with a 6th of 6 in the Bobby Jo Chase and 5th of 6 in the Tenants chase at Down Royal Points For: Class, Jumping. Points Against: Weight Royal Auclair (FR)8-11-10A nice horse this chestnut gelding, He is a past winner of the Cathcart at Cheltenham and more recently in the class A Badger Ales Trophy at the start of the season. He is a good horse who ran up some good wins as a novice but is another who because of his consistency is at the mercy of the handicapper and although he runs well he often finds one or two too good in a race. At the end of last season he underwent a breathing operation and this looks to have been successful. He is from the Paul Nicholls stable which is one of the best in the country and any horse from them must be respected although the stable has not got a good record in the race, it is only a matter of time before luck goes their way. A significant jockey booking would go a long way to reflect this horses chance.
Alexander Banquet (IRE)12-11-4--*NON-RUNNER* -- This bay gelding is another from Ireland and comes from another very good stable that of Willie Mullins. A past winner of the Hennessey Gold cup at LEOPARDSTOWN he is a horse who's form can be up and down. He has not won a race since Feb 02 but has put in some good performances in defeat. He has run in this race twice before in 2002 he unseated his rider at the first fence, and last year he fell at the 18th. At 12 he cannot be getting better and is one who will need a lot to go his way to win this.
Fondmort9-11-3--*NON-RUNNER* -- A flamboyant jumper this bay gelding can look spectacular when on form. A past winner of the paddy power and the triple print chases at Cheltenham shows you that he has something about him. He is another who has not won at a distance of over 2m4f but his trainer thinks he will get this trip. There is a school of thought that 2m4f horses also get marathons because they get a second wind. I do-not subscribe to this although it is always the exception that proves the rule. He looks to have a good jumping style on his day that would suit this course but I'm not sure he could keep it up over 4 miles +.
Monty's Pass12-11-3Past winner of this race, this bay gelding has run well in his both starts in this race. Last year he finished a very good 4th in addition to his win in 2003. At 12 he will not be getting any better but with 7lbs less to carry he has been given a chance to make the frame again. His past form in the Grand National not withstanding it is difficult to access him as he runs in hurdle races so you must see him as something of a national specialist and trust he will go well. He is not a prolific winner but is from a team that can lay horses out for a race and he should go well again this year. The last dual winner was Red Rum in 73,74,77 so dual winners are not prolific and he would have to be on top of his form to win again but it would not be a surprise to see him make the frame again. One more point is that he is one of the few to have won on firm so in the unlikely event of the going being fast this may help his chances.
Take The Stand (IRE)9-11-5A nine-year-old bay gelding this horse is a past winner of the summer national over 4m+ at Uttoxeter last summer. A good young horse who is probably still improving and looks to have a good chance but is still a little high in the weights to be firmly recommended. The distance will be no problem for the horse and he has the class and if the ground turns up on the firm side this will improve his chances. In the past he has run well at Aintree, back in the Autumn he ran in the Totesport Wigan Chase where only farmer Jack was ahead of him and he gave the winner 9lbs. His most recent race puts him right up to the top of his form when he ran a cracker of a race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where again he found only one to good and finished a 5 length second to Kicking King. 5lbs less weight would give him a very good chance but as I write this it has been announced that Grey Abbey will not run so the weights may rise and this will work against him. He is undoubtedly better on good ground with 7 of his 8 wins coming on ground good or firmer and only one on good to soft. That said he did run with great credit when finishing fourth in bottomless ground in the 2003 Welsh National. The horse has class and is running into form this might be his best chance at the big race.
Ballycassidy (IRE)9-11-5A nice brown gelding Ballycassidy has run in some strange races in the past. A third of his races have been in fields with 5 or less runners. It is difficult to judge form in these types of races as the way the race is run rarely shows true form. The best of his form is probably his win in the Summer Plate Showcase Handicap at Market Raisen where he showed a clean pair of heels to his opposition over 2m4f. He is a winner at Aintree when he contested the Doubleprint Novices' Chase in 2003 but that day there was only three runners and he finished alone when the two others fell. With 30 runs and 11 wins you would have thought that he was well exposed but I find it difficult to judge his chance. He is the wrong side of the 11st marker and that would put me off for this race but he could be anything really and his connections seem keen on his chances. Ballycassidy is prone to jumping errors but that said he has never fallen in a race.
Ballybough Rasher (IRE)10-11-4A ten-year-old Bay gelding with not too many miles on the clock this horse was a good winner of the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby at the end of 2003. He can be prone to jumping errors and this seems to get worse at the pace hots up. This can mean him pulling up in a race. Which he done 5 times in his career add to this 3 UR and a fall and you can see that he is not the most reliable of horses. That said when he gets it all together he looks good. After being pulled up earlier in the season he was given a break and run in two hurdle races where he ran with credit but unfortunately he was pulled up when hampered at Cheltenham when put back over fences. With over 11st on his back to add into the equation he will need things to go very much his way to win this race.
Risk Accessor (IRE)10-11-4This 10-year-old bay gelding is very much a 2 and a half-mile horse who is trying the longer distances. He ran last year in this race but fell at the 6th along with 8 other horses. He can run in and out in races and looks to have it all to do in this race on past form. There are definite doubts about him getting this trip. Unless there is a significant move in the betting for this horse then I don't think he has much chance.
Bindaree11-11-3A fabulous long distance chaser, this bay gelding has been here won the race and comes back for more. At 11 it is not impossible for his to do it again and if back to his best could just defy this weight. He owes nothing to his fans or his connections. This horse and is at his best over extreme distances and on soft ground. A past winner of this and the Welsh version of this race he has done it all before. He has run only twice this year and has obviously had this race as his aim. Red Rum was the last dual winner and this horse wouldn't be a surprise if he were the next. He fell in the mêlée at the 8th fence last year and that can be written off and he has looked well this season. A great chaser who will give you a run for your money.
Amberleigh House (IRE)13-11-3Last year this brown gelding broke some stats, First 12 year olds do not have a great record in recent races and second winners in the past few years have been running in their first national. This year he has to break an even stronger record as the last 13-year-old horse to win the national was in 1923 when Sergeant Murphy won the race. It would be great to see this old horse win again and send his trainer Ginger McCain into retirement on the best high but he looks to have too much to do this year. This horse really is something of an Aintree specialist and is always a few pounds better at this course. His form at this course is good and although all the stats say no, he will give you a good run for your money and with only 4lbs more than last year he could run into a place.
Jurancon II8-11-0 --*NON-RUNNER* --Well young he may be at 8 years old but this bay gelding loves long distance races. In his last 9 starts the shortest distance has been 3m5f. A past winner of the summer national he has what it takes to win long distance races. He ran in this race last year but unfortunately fell at the 4th fence however he should be better this year as he has more experience, however he has 7lbs more to carry in the race this year and he has run below par in his races so far this season. He ran in the Welsh National this season again but finished well down the field and was not as good as his run 12 months previous when he finished well in 5th. He also sidestepped Cheltenham this season to go for the Midlands National but was pulled up in the race. He acts on any surface and so his connections will not have any weather worries on the day. This horse would have to step up on what we have seen so far but he does stay very well and in a hard race he should be fighting out a finish when other horses have had enough.
Venn Ottery10-10-13--*NON-RUNNER* -- This 10 year old bay gelding has run in all classes of race. This season alone he has run in the two mile champion chase at Cheltenham TWO DAYS later ran in the Gold Cup and SIX DAYS later he raced in a hunter chase carrying 12st 5lbs. After all those exertions it would be something very special if this horse makes the frame. He obviously is a nice horse but I think his rating is too high on what he has actually achieved. I can only think that is based on his Champion Chase run of last season when he looked good in the race and finished a creditable 5th. This horse has never won a race over 2m1f and I think he has little chance here today but I will amazed if he finishes in the first 4.
Colonel Frank8-10-12 --*NON-RUNNER* --This bay gelding fell when tired in ground that his connection think did not suit in his last race. However this was well out of character for the progressive improving 8 year old. Despite this last run he is a consistent horse who very rarely runs a poor race. I feel that this year may perhaps be too soon for him with only 14 runs under his belt but if he keeps improving as he has been then he will be well up in the weights next year. Despite his recent race this horse jumps well and travels well in his races and this is the stuff that Grand National horses are made of. He has won on heavy ground but his connections think he is at his best on genuine good ground. I think he is not a definite runner but if his connections go for it he could have a live chance and would not be a surprise winner.
Hedgehunter9-11-1This bay gelding ran an absolute cracker of a race last year off this same weight (at time of writing weights now gone up 3lbs). He was up with the pace all through the race and was travelling very well throughout the race. He was a little tired when he fell at the last, but after 4 miles+ you are entitled to get tired. I think he is the right type of horse for this race and I will be very surprised if he does not put up a very good performance. His jockey last year did nothing wrong but he has had to make way for the very talented Ruby Walsh this season who as well as being the stables number one jockey is in my opinion the best jockey riding today. A previous winner of the Goulding Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park and the Bobbyjo Chase this horse although not a proficient winner seems to have all the credentials to win this race. A real live chance who is now one of the favourites. If he does not run well that will be a surprise and a win could be very much on the cards this year as long as the ground is not too firm. You can safely ignore much of his form this year as he has run in hurdles and this seems very popular in Ireland but he has very much had this race in mind all season.
Foly Pleasant11-11-00This bay gelding is having a good year for a new trainer. Very much thought of as a two and a half mile horse, indeed he had not tried many races above that distance and he is now looking to get longer distances as his last run in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham was over 3miles and he finished 2nd if a tired second. A past winner of the Ladbroke Trophy Chase at Cheltenham proves that he once could cut it with good horses around sorter distances but I think he has a big task today and it would be a surprise to see him fighting out the finish.
Astonville11-10-13This bay gelding has not won a race since coming to this country. A winner on three races in very soft ground in France. You can never completely right off horses in this race but he has been running in hunter chases and there is nothing in his form to suggest he will take part in the finish here today.
Ad Hoc11-10-12A top class horse two seasons ago who had a hard race in the 2003 Grand National before being pulled up, but then went on to win the attheraces Gold Cup Chase Showcase Handicap ay Sandown later in the season. This bay gelding has not shown his old form since that race and some of the shine has come off him. On his best form at this weight he could run into a place.
Heros Collonges11-10-11Very rare to see an 11year old with just 8 races to his name. This horse suffered leg problems and had to take three years off so it is good to see him back and in good form. It looks a big ask for him in the Grand National however this has always been his aim since he was brought to this country from his native France. It really is difficult to access his chances given he has had so little racing but his connections think a lot of him and think he could cope with this race. This horse has won five of his eight races and is a dark horse that could be anything.
Glenelly Gale11-10-11A nice brown/bay gelding this 11 year old from Ireland who perhaps is another who has suffered at the hands of the handicapper. He has found winning difficult since his win in the grade one James Nicholson Wine Merchant Champion Chase at Down Royal in 2003. He has gone up in the ratings and despite this he still puts in good runs, which means he stays high in the handicap. He is a regular at Aintree but this is the first time for him to try the big fences. His best effort at the course was the Red Rum chase in 2002 where he managed to finish 3rd. He has won over 3 miles so there is a chance that he could stay but he is untried at distances above 3m1f and his connections seem to run him more at 2m+ Looks like he has a lot to find to win this race.
It Takes Time11-10- 11A very good hurdler who looked to not have made the upgrade to fences as he had only ever won one novice chase. However his run in the group1 totesport Chase (Class A) (Registered As The Ascot Chase) changed that and that race was run at Lingfield was a very good win with Ollie Magern and Hand in Hand behind him. Perhaps now he is going to show his full potential. He is well exposed and his way of running is a little in and out and does not give him a great chance, but if at his best he could run well but I think he is just as likely to find this too difficult.
Clan Royal11-10-11A really good chaser this is a horse who has a real liking for the course. He ran a fabulous race last year when getting touched off and had to settle for second place. He is a previous winner of the Becher chase over these fences. The only thing that could count against this horse is that his stable has had illness problems and has had a poor season. They seem to be over it now and if this horse is back to his best he will have every chance of going one better A real live chance this year. With only 6 lbs extra to carry after last years great effort. He is already in the short end of the betting market and comes from an owner and stable who love to bet therefore a strong move in the market should be seen as significant of his well-being.
Nil Desperandum (IRE)8-10-11Another of the Irish raiders this young bay gelding will be on one of his few runs outside Ireland. He was disappointing in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase earlier this season when he was pulled up (the race was won by Celestial Gold (IRE)). He ran in the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle in 2003 where he finished 6th. Young enough to have plenty of improvement to come. A sudden move in the marked would be significant. He jumps well in his races. Despite putting in some poor performances he could be one of the dark horses.
Lord Noelie12-10-10A really nice horse this 12 year old bay gelding was one of my favourites and often found his way on to my horses to follow list. I never felt that he fulfilled his potential as a chaser. A winner of the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase in 2000 he never reached those heights again. With only 5 wins from 30 starts he is not a prolific winner. He has slipped down the handicap in recent years but still finds one or two too good in a race. His last win was in 2003 in the Tote Bookmakers Handicap Chase but since then he has been pulled up in half of his 6 races. His most promising race was his last when he was 4th of 16 at Cheltenham in the cross county race if he runs with that form he could run well again today. The horse prefers genuine good ground and would not like heavy ground.
Joly Bey8-10-10A nice 8-year-old chestnut gelding who has been aimed at this race all season. He has run twice before at Aintree the first time was in 2003 where he put up a good performance finishing in 3rd place in a 3m1f chase. Last year he returned in the Martell Cognac Topsham Chase where his owner rode him but unfortunately he fell. His owner has ridden him for the last 9 races so he knows the horse well despite being an amateur rider. He will be riding him again today and has found the winners enclosure twice so far on this horse. The first was in the Systems By Design Handicap Hurdle at Newbury and also in the Royal British Legion Alanbrooke Memorial Handicap Chase at Sandown and that was back in February. It is not unheard of for amateurs to win the race with the last being Mr. Marcus Armitage in 1990 on Mr.Frisk, but amateur do-not have a great record in recent times. That said I think that Mr.Dunston has the best chance of any amateur since 1990. The horse does make jumping errors, and he will not be able to get away with them here but with a clear round who knows?
Jakari8-10-10A big strong bay gelding who looks an out and out chaser. He travels well in his races and has run well in chases up to a distance of 3m1f. Therefore despite not winning at a distance over 2m4f he looks as if it will not be long before he will win further. He is from a stable that is known to take time with its chasers. He looks as if he is another of the dark horses and the fact that although he has won on soft he really needs good ground to show his best and that is not always the ground we see at Aintree and perhaps that is why he looks too big in the betting market. He should have more improvement to come and if he takes to the fences he could run well.
Frenchman's Creek11-10-9A nice 11 year old bay gelding who needs good ground to show his best, although he has won on soft he runs far better in genuine good ground. With 22 runs at 11 years old he has not had many runs and he has been known to break blood vessels. He is another who perhaps has not fulfilled his potential and can sometimes put in a bad run for no apparent reason. He is not without a chance.
Iznogoud9-10-9Only nine? This horse seems to have been around for a lot longer that. He has run 25 times and like a lot of Martin Pipes horses he gets lots of runs and therefore lots of chances to do his best. He runs pretty well in his races and is often up with the pace which is good for this race but the worry is that his wins have come at around 2 miles with his furthest at 2m5f. He has tried 3m5f but looked as if he failed to get home. In contrast he did run over 3 miles in the Racing Post Chase where he finished 2nd. He has run 3 times at Aintree; in 2001 he was 9th in a 2m+ hurdle. However he has fallen on both times he tried the fences at this course although neither were over the national fences.
Polar Red8-10-8This 8 year old chestnut gelding is very much a two and a half mile horse who will be trying his luck at this marathon. He has never been raced over a distance further than 2m6f and is another who has come from the flat. While he looks a nice enough horse there is nothing to suggest he will excel at this distance. His best jump run was in the Sunderlands Imperial Cup Hurdle in 2002 a race in which he beat Impek into second place. A long outsider.
Double Honour7-10-8A seven-year-old grey gelding, Double Honour does not look the most straightforward of rides. He often looks as if he is at the end of his tether midway through a race but to his credit he always seems to find more and stays on. He beat last year's winner Amberleigh House over these fences here in November in the Becher chase (A race won by Silver Birch). That day he did not look like an Aintree horse but stayed on despite making a few errors along the way. He is a convert from the flat where his best run was a second to Persian Punch at Goodwood. He has had a lot of runs for a 7year old horse with 46 races. He looks well exposed but has not yet reached his peak as far as steeple chasing is concerned. His most recent run was very encouraging at Haydock in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase where he finished a good second to Forest Gunner over the 3m4f+. At 7 years old the stats make him too young to win, as the last 7 year old was Boskar in 1940 so it would take a remarkable horse to break that record.
Forest Gunner11-10-7This 11-year-old chestnut gelding looks to have all the right credentials for a Grand National winner. A winner over this course and fences last year in the foxhunters chase and carrying 12st in the bargain was a very good performance indeed. He has been in good form this season with 2 wins from 2 runs. The first was again over these fences in the betfair.com Grand Sefton Handicap Chase and the second was in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase over 3m5f. He has every thing that is needed for a Grand National horse. Despite all this if he wins the national it will be his jockey who will be remembered as she will be the first Woman to win the race in it's 166 year history. This would really be something and there can be little doubt that Carrie Ford has the best chance of any woman jockey that has ever attempted to achieve this feat.
Colnel Rayburn8-10-7A 9-Year-old Bay Gelding who has not run in the country before. He is a past winner of the Kevin McManus Bookmakers European Breeders Fund Novice Chase at Navan and also the Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Novice Handicap Chase Final at the same course. He ran in last seasons Irish Grand National but he fell in the race. He is a good horse who likes long distance races but his key is the ground, he loves soft ground an I think it is unlikely he will even run unless the ground is on the soft side of good. A bit of an unknown quantity but plenty have come from Ireland to win recently and he must have a chance and he is in the lower half of the betting market.
Just In Debt9-10-7This brown/bay gelding is a little inconsistent in his running and also tends to pull little to the left, which will not be a disadvantage today. He does not look an easy ride at all having to come late as he tends to idle in front. He has a liking for good ground or firmer. His best guide for this race was his very good run in the Becher Chase at this course and fences in November when he was second to Silver Birch. He ran in this race last year however he unseated his rider at the 23rd fence.
Going and Distance: has won on ground ranging from good/firm to soft and up to a distance of 3m1f.
Spotthedifference12-10-7This Bay gelding will give you a roller coaster of a day if you bet him. He looses place in a race early on but that it not a worry as he always stays on. Last year in this race was a classic example as he was a long way behind and last going out for the second circuit but finished well in 5th place. He has shown great form this year and it is a surprise to see him still listed as his connection have stated that he will not run but goes to Punchestown to try and winter La Touche and get a 50,00 euro bonus for winning at Cheltenham.
Shamawan10-10-6A two miler trying this distance for the first time in chases. Has once tried 3m7f in a hurdle and that was on his last outing where he finished a tired 4th of 8. He has not shown anything to suggest he will like this course or distance and does not look up to this class. A real mud lark who may stay on if it turns into a real quagmire.
Lord Atterbury9-10-6Third in this race last year and looking to go one better. A good class ex-pointer this bay gelding who has had a better preparation this year. He looks the right type of horse for the national but he does make jumping errors in his races. Running in hunter chases in the main he is used to having to carry 12st on his back and this 10st 6lbs will feel very light to him and will enhance his chance. He is spot on for the race and could go one better and would not be an unexpected or undeserving winner.
Turnium10-10-6A 2m2.5mile hurdle horse who is trying this trip on his second outing over fences in this country. Has run over fences when younger in France. Was in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March and finished last. Has little chance and finishing the race would be something of a triumph. Loves soft ground.
Innox9-10-6A young French raider from the powerful yard for F.Doumen. He has not run many times in this country and is at his best at another of the park courses, Sandown. Not a prolific winner with only three from 33 runs but he could just be a bit of a dark horse. Has not run well when tried at Cheltenham but his last three runs at Sandown he finished 2,2 then won on his last run in the Agfa Diamond Handicap Chase.
Europa9-10-6This bay gelding in overdue for some good luck. In his last race be was brought down in running . In January at Cheltenham he was forced to run wide and fell. And In December He was forced to jump out to avoid a fallen horse at an important part of the race . So could this be the one? He has an outsiders chance in the race, His best run to date was in the Racing UK Landmark Handicap Chase at Sandown but that was over 2m4f+ and he has not won at a distance further than 2m5f so it looks a big ask for him here. He comes from a real chasing stable and it would not be total surprise if he was better than his bare form indicates. Watch the betting market.
Merchants Friend10-10-6A nice bay gelding who seems to have two ways of running. When he is on song he is good but when it is not his day he is not good at all. A past winner of the Tim Molony Handicap Chase at Haydock shows that he should like this course despite pulling up last year here in the Martell Cognac Ember Inns Handicap Chase. Could be good enough for a place if he is on song and things go his way.
Arctic Copper (IRE)11-10-6Another of the Irish raiders this bay gelding has not run well in his travels to this country. He has run some good races his best was in the Paddy and Helen Cox Memorial Newlands Chase a grade 2 that he won well. A move in the betting market would be a good pointer to this hoses chance. He has been disappointing this season.
Hunters Tweed9-10-6This chestnut gelding has been a little disappointing of last with 4 pulled ups in his last 7 runs however he has got talent and when he puts it together he puts up reasonable performances in good races. He looks a little behind this class so far but he has got a lightweight and at 9 he should have some improvement to come.
Simply Gifted10-10-6This bay gelding has suffered from wind and ligament problems in the past. He is a another of the two and a half mile horses trying the marathon distance. He come from a very good stable who has been under the weather for most of the season, He has had two encouraging runs this season however if at around the 2m5f distance. Has been tried once over 3miles without success and there is nothing in his form to indicate he will like this course or distance.
Strong Resolve10-10-6Something of an Ayr specialist this grey gelding with 4 of his 6 wins at that course, and also 19 of his starts have been there. He is consistent a good jumper and like to run up with the pace and therefore despite being low in the handicap I think he has an outstanding chance today. The handicap ratings for this race in the past few years has been squashed to such an extent that all the runners will probably be in the handicap as opposed to a few years ago when much less than half got in the handicap. This should give horses with higher weights a better chance against the lower grade horses but still 11st+ winners are few in recent times. This horse a few years ago would have been running of the bare 10st so in that respect he is worse off however his 10st 6lbs is a good racing weight for this marathon and will stand him in good stead. He is consistent and comes here on the back of 5 really good runs with form figure of 2,1,1,2 and 2 with his best of them a very good second in the Welsh National to the very smart one time favourite for this race Silver Birch. He runs well on all ground conditions and although untried at these fences he jumps like a stag and loves marathon trips. He has every thing in his favour and no negative at all. He may start a worthy favourite and is my idea of the winner. If he wins he will be remembered for being the horse that was trained by a woman who will be only the second woman in the history of the great race to have trained the winner. Outstanding Chance.
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